避免草脚，翻译好了再加到100分采纳
Credit expansion must now be followed by a period of contraction, because some of the new credit instruments and practices are unsound and unsustainable. The ability of the financial authorities to stimulate the economy is constrained by the unwillingness of the rest of the world to accumulate additional dollar reserves. Until recently, investors were hoping that the US Federal Reserve would do whatever it takes to avoid a recession, because that is what it did on previous occasions. Now they will have to realise that the Fed may no longer be in a position to do so. With oil, food and other commodities firm, and the renminbi appreciating somewhat faster, the Fed also has to worry about inflation. If federal funds were lowered beyond a certain point, the dollar would come under renewed pressure and long-term bonds would actually go up in yield. Where that point is, is impossible to determine. When it is reached, the ability of the Fed to stimulate the economy comes to an end.

Although a recession in the developed world is now more or less inevitable, China, India and some of the oil-producing countries are in a very strong countertrend. So, the current financial crisis is less likely to cause a global recession than a radical realignment of the global economy, with a relative decline of the US and the rise of China and other countries in the developing world.

The danger is that the resulting political tensions, including US protectionism, may disrupt the global economy and plunge the world into recession or worse.

The writer is chairman of Soros Fund Management

The Financial Times Article -- Published: January 23 2008

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Thank you for your interest.
Please do not respond to this email, messages sent to this address will not be read or answered. For more information about George Soros please visit GeorgeSoros.com

由于信用扩张之后，现在必须通过一个时期的收缩，因为一些新信贷工具和做法是不合理和不可持续的。金融当局刺激经济的发展受到限制不愿意世界其他国家积累更多的美元储备。直到最近，投资者希望美国联邦储备局将尽一切力量，以避免经济衰退，因为这是它在以前的场合。现在，他们将不得不意识到，美联储可能不再有能力这样做的。随着石油，粮食和其他商品的公司，人民币升值有所加快，美联储也担心通货膨胀。如果联邦基金下降超过一定点，美元将受到新的压力和长期债券实际上将增加产量。如果这一点是无法确定。当它达到的能力，美联储刺激经济即将结束。

尽管经济衰退在发达世界现在是或多或少是不可避免的，中国，印度和一些石油生产国正处于非常强劲countertrend 。因此，当前的金融危机不太可能导致全球经济衰退比激进的调整，全球经济，相对下降，美国和崛起的中国和其他国家在发展中世界。

危险的是，由此产生的政治紧张局势，其中包括美国的保护主义，可能破坏全球经济，使世界陷入衰退甚至更糟。

作者是董事长索罗斯基金管理公司

金融时报文章-发表日期： 2 008年一月2 3日

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

感谢您关注。
请不要回复此电子邮件，传送到这个地址将不会阅读或回答。如需索罗斯请访问GeorgeSoros.com