The board of directors of a small electrical relay manufacturing company are faced with a number of inter-related decision problems.

There is currently a labour dispute and the union has set a strike deadline of 12.00 midnight if their request for a 20% (TEXTVAR1)wage increase is not accepted. There is no doubt that the union will carry out this threat and the resulting strike would cost £26700,(VAR2) and, in addition it is certain that the ultimate agreement would result in a relay cost of £3.9(TEXTVAR3) per unit. If the company give in to their demand, the total cost per relay unit would increase to £4.02(TEXTVAR4) compared to the present cost of £3.67(TEXTVAR5) per unit.

The union problems are complicated by the fact that the Government is seeking tenders for a contract C1 for the supply of 1082000(VAR6) relay units and the company would not be eligible to bid for the contract if the employees went on strike. However, even if the union demands were met and the strike averted, the company would still not be assured of getting the contract unless the competitors are underbid.

The possible bids and resulting probabilities of winning the contract are as follows;

Possible bid per unit Probability of winning contract C1
£4.15 0.29(TEXTVAR7)
£4.12 0.51(TEXTVAR8)
£4.10 0.61(TEXTVAR9)
£4.07 0.79(TEXTVAR10)

A second government contract C2 is anticipated in the latter part of the year if the company is unsuccessful in obtaining C1. Because of the production limitations, it is not possible for the company to bid for contract C2 if it is awarded contract C1. To be in a position to bid for the contract C2, it is necessary to secure adequate financial backing now, to provide a guarantee that the company could provide certain expensive test equipment if it is awarded the contract.

The larger the investment in test equipment provided, the higher the probability the company will be awarded the contract. The anticipated net profit for this second contract is £307300(VAR11) if the per unit cost is £4.02(Same as TEXTVAR4), and £500,000(VAR13) if the per unit cost is £3.9(same as TEXTVAR3). These figures do not include the large investment in special test equipment which has to be written off over the life of the contract. The possible investment and resulting probabilities of winning the contract are as follows;
Investment in test equipment Probability of winning contract C2
£198600(VAR15) 0.2(TEXTVAR19)
£240800(VAR16) 0.39(TEXTVAR20)
£267300(VAR17) 0.5(TEXTVAR21)
£295300(VAR18) 0.6(TEXTVAR22)

Draw a decision tree for the problem and assuming maximum expected monetary value is the criterion to be used determine;
1. whether or not the company should give in to the union’s demands
2. what bid per unit should be chosen for contract C1, and
3. how much should be invested in test equipment for contract C2
What is the strategy and the expected monetary value of this strategy

一家小型继电器生产公司的董事会面临一系列的内部决议问题。
目前有一场劳资纠纷，如果工人们请求加薪20%的要求没有被接受，工会计划在午夜12点进行罢工。毫无疑问的是工会将这样威胁，而且罢工将耗费26700英镑。同时，最终的协议将因每个继电器3.9英镑的价格受到损失。如果公司向他们的要求妥协，那么所有的损失将随着每单位继电器由现在的价格为3.67英镑上升到4.02英镑而增加。
工会的问题变得更复杂，因为政府为了代替1082000型继电器组寻求合同C1的招标，而如果工人继续罢工的话公司就没有竞标这个合同的资格。然而即便是工会的要求得到满足，罢工被避免了，公司也未必能一定签到这份合同，除非竞争者低价抛售。
可能的竞标以及可能获得合同的价格如下
可能获得合同C1的单位竞标价格为
£4.15 0.29
£4.12 0.51
£4.10 0.61
£4.07 0.79
政府的第二份合同C2计划于今年下旬进行，如果公司没能获得合同C1.由于产品的限制，如果有没有签订C1，公司不可能竞标上合同C2。为了能竞标上C2,目前必须保证必要充分的资金作后盾，以保证公司能提供昂贵的试用设备，如果公司被授权得到合同。
对试用设备提供越大的投资，公司获得合同的可能性就越高。如果单位成本为4.02英镑，那么第二份合同的预期净收入为307300英镑，同样，如果单位成本为3.9英镑，那么净收入就是50万英镑。这些数据不包括对特别测试设备的大规模检测，这些必须写入合同的条款。可能进行的投资和可能赢得合同的结果如下：
对试用设备的测试以及赢得合同的可能性
£198600(VAR15) 0.2(TEXTVAR19)
£240800(VAR16) 0.39(TEXTVAR20)
£267300(VAR17) 0.5(TEXTVAR21)
£295300(VAR18) 0.6(TEXTVAR22)
对问题决议和预计最大费用是做最后决定的标准。
1，公司是否应该对工会的要求妥协
2，对于合同1应该选取每单位多少的竞标价格
3，对于合同2应当投资多少钱在试用设备上。
我们的战略是什么，以及这个战略预计的货币价值是多少。